BEAS was holding on the some strength today but gave way and dropped into the close. BEAS trades at a Premium PE Multiple of 231.0 times earnings vs. the 39.4 times average multiple at which the Software & Services SubIndustry is priced. I still think this is too much. We have been short BEAS or in puts much of this month. I didn't get GLW but used it as a barometer, so it helped me hold the others.
BRCD trades at a Premium PE Multiple of 100.5 times, vs. the 42.5 times the average multiple at which the Computer Peripherals SubIndustry is priced.
I have no position at all in BEAS now, but will more than likely reshort if I can next week. I have BRCD calls, but I still think the chances are good we have a breakdown there as well. If not the morning after the report, than the following morning. This might all be over by March, granted but I would wait at least until all the earnings are in before picking up any 'bargains'.
We were impressed with the strength of SEBL today while BEAS although holding on a bit lost the final battle by close and with a relatively large amount of insiders selling I feel that D-Day has still not arrive. Eventually when BEAS and a few others have P/E's like AVNX or GLW we might begin a resurgence of the bull market. I came out flat tonight, and if there is a technical reason to go long next week on anticipation, I sure will but only for momentum. BRCD might fare a tad better but holding the March 60's its a 50/50 deal and I know it.
At the same time DCTM, APWR, IVGN,GILD was closing in strength. We had yet another day on the short side at least until just before the doldrums were over when we basically went back to morning triggers. The close of BEAS, the continuing decapitation of GLW, DIGL (this one after a good report), the demise of TLGD, made me very skeptical of that one day run of CIEN on Thursday. We still have a rough going next week with the reports of BEAS, and BRCD and probably more downside in them both. However I do consider the possibility that BRCD might has some mettle left for maybe one more rally next week. But all I would think of exposing now is are some call options and I still have those. To shop for falling knives now before at least the last of the earnings numbers are in is dangerous. We all had some degree of pummeling. I escaped DIGL with a 4 point loss only to see a 14 point loss after. Here and there are some wounds, but to be in cash at the end of the day with only some choice earnings plays is what I prefer. I very much like GILD, ENZN, IVGN and might pick up AMRI again on Tuesday, if the market smiles on the biotechs.
I have a number of energy stocks, ADVP still a rock, XL now as well as FNM. Looking seriously at NTRS from today's watch list for more than the daytrade we got today, We like DCTM, DOX, ESRX (let it correct). We have fun both long and short with CCMP, DPMI. I am looking at EMBT and CANI for possible recovery on Tuesday. Yes I like JILL so far as its bucked the trend for two days already and might be good for more next week. But even here I would pick up a little and close the position until earnings are safely determined. TO STAY LONG ANY TECH STOCK THROUGH ITS EARNINGS REPORT IS NOW A FINANCIAL HAZARD. If it takes checking my portfolio which was quite a little now, and dropping these through earnings, I'd do it in a flash. As it is all I hold now are those that reported but you never know. Buying dips now is not the way to fly. We though the bottom was in GLW for the last week, I was still waiting for 35 |
