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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 681.92-0.7%Dec 31 4:00 PM EST

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To: lurqer who wrote (69311)2/17/2001 3:00:54 AM
From: Psycho-Social  Read Replies (2) of 99985
 
Re Bearish Sentiment Getting More Bearish:
Two comments are in order; first, it's impossible to ever have a clear as a bell signal of capitulation that is accepted by most Market participants. If a large number of investors/traders recognized the development of such a signal, they would alter their investment behavior and the Market low would never fully develop. I believe that is why Jake Bernstein's DSI's are more accurate than the Investors Intelligence survey since it became popular. Bernstein has limited? credibility and exposure, so not many people change their behavior based on his data.

2nd: I am willing to hold as long as it takes once I've completed my buying. I held one position last year from March 31st till late August before the sell signal came. The shorter time horizon used by most MDD traders demands a different approach. This may not be the ultimate bottom, but it's close enough that I'm pretty sure I'll have a profit by the time a bullish consensus develops.
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