Hi Dave - you queried Jack
J: yes, we are in recession, but it won't be long - say most of this year.
D:I'm curious why you say that. I would expect a recession following the biggest baddest bull run the history of modern economics to be followed by more than a few months of mild recession.
I guess the same query can go to your response, why you said that. Just having the longest expansion in history, and consequently, the stk mkt, doesn't mean there is the equal amount of calamity to follow, does it?
Please bear in mind that the current posturing of the Fed is easing, yesterday PPI not withstanding. Let's say if the Fed continues to aggressively ease rate in the 1st 1/2 of the yr, there is plenty of monetary stimulus to revive consumer confidence. Obviously, the contrarian view is that the Fed may be too aggressive in easing, causing another irrational exuberance. However, the Fed has plenty of room to go
forecasts.org
to nip recession in the bud. JMHO
best, Bosco |
