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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 336.87

+1.3%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Ian@SI who wrote (42307)	2/17/2001 12:45:25 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (2) of 70976

>>Start with the reason why Foundries will give up Leading Edge market share; then explain why the advanced logic makers will let their competitors take an overwhelming advantage; then you can finish up with the reasons for Infineon stopping its efforts after spending almost 3 years establishing a technology lead. << I think this is where you and I part ways, Ian. The need for constant technology upgrades is as old as Moore's Law. But so are semiconductor industry cycles. The first does not preclude the second. By your logic, the 1996-98 downturn should not have happened. But it did, and it was one of the most severe in the history of the industry. It is very difficult to decide to spend $2 billion plus on a new fab when the fabs you have are operating at a loss due to overcapacity or a demand slump. As you know, I don't invest in semi equips for conflict of interest reasons, so I'm not going to comment on whether shorting AMAT is a wise decision or not. I do think, though, that it's extremely unwise to wave the technology upgrade wand as the magic cure to all the industry's problems. Katherine

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