Hi Jimbo - with regard to the option play, many people, including myself, smell something on Thursday, some people did something and I didn't. The moral of the story, don't fall in love unless one prepares to get hurt! With regard to recession, well, maybe Chmn Al really believed in what he said
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Anyway, I think Chmn Al has a couple of 100 basis points to play around with. I do not think the US economy is that of the Japan of the 80s b/c structurally and culturally they are very different. To say the least, the Japanese economy is self-perpetuated. The longer it takes to bite the bullet; the longer it takes to revive. One doesn't take tylenol is one has a brain tumor. OTOH, the US does know short term discomfort is better than terminal illness. So, while I feel for those who may lose their job in this contraction, they will bounce back. Sometimes, being a little insecure keeps us on the toe. OTOH, the Japanese is suffering b/c of the faltering recovery as much as the cultural dislocation
best. Bosco |