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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up!

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To: Jason W who wrote (9191)2/17/2001 7:25:20 PM
From: tinkershaw  Read Replies (1) of 10309
 
Anyone care to refute Tinkershaw's post on the G&K Thread?

I'll refute myself. The point of controversy is with a ten fold increase in "intangible assets" from this year to last year. The increase in intangible assets began in the April '00 quarter.

If you back out those assets and just use the prior years number you get an ROIC around 47%. Which is an improvement from 1999s ROIC which was in the low 30% area. That would demonstrate improvement.

Still, if you compare it to behemoths in absolute tornadoes and who are market dominators like Seibel 173%, Juniper 131%, or Checkpoint (out of this world) it is not gorillaish.

NTAP has maintained the mid 50% ROIC for years, and BRCD's is in the 60-70% range. As the Wind tornado builds lets look for improvement in this number. I think with Wind's business model it should at least hit the 60% range for ROIC. However, at its current ROIC (again I threw in the mythical 20% operating margin and used an arbitrary 30% tax rate, and then projected revenues forward for the next year against this quarters assets, so this is a best case scenario for WIND) the best numbers I come up with is 47-57%. Which is not bad at all if that enorous increase in intangible assets should be subtracted out.

The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle, so I'm not doing any Wind gorilla dances yet. But 47% is much better than 13%, and probably much closer to the actual ROIC for WIND.

Tinker
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