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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: Venkie who wrote (68852)2/17/2001 11:34:32 PM
From: Perspective  Read Replies (3) of 436258
 
Nobody stole anything from you, my friend. You gave it away, just like the poor suckers who've tried to guess the bottom in every other great secular bear market.

I tried to tell you many months ago that you needed to do a little digging - read a little - study some market history. I guess you chose to ignore me. The secular bear is still young. I doubt you want to learn short-selling; most people aren't cut out for it. But you can still reap dramatic benefits if you just stop trying to catch the falling knife.

My two major trading rules come from Marty Zweig. I try to flow with market momentum, and expect the momentum to shift when credit market conditions reverse. I began looking for a major momentum shift when credit markets began seizing up. The shift appeared, and I've been clown short most of the way down. As soon as the credit markets improve, I'll began looking for market momentum confirmation. However, I think we're far from there.

Permabears and permabulls are both Clowns, and the market will destroy both species. You are the latter. Wise up or face Darwin.

When the bottom comes, there won't be a dozen people on TV every day "pounding the table" to buy because the bottom's in. Look at Japan - that's what a bottom looks like.

Oh - and I work in semiconductors. Business sucks, and it's getting worse every day. Broadcom is in trouble. One day they'll soar again, maybe even reach their old high. But that day is a long recession away. Do you HONESTLY THINK that we're so f*cking clever that we've engineered away recessions forever?

Recessions happen. Deal with it or be destroyed.

BC
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