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Technology Stocks : All American Semiconductor - Excellent Buy!!!!
SEMI 30.57+0.5%Nov 21 4:00 PM EST
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To: Arthur Tang who wrote (712)2/18/2001 8:12:35 AM
From: Arthur Tang  Read Replies (1) of 719
 
When bookings come back March 15, will the book to bill ratio go much above one?

So far Motorola and Compaq think their business will be down single digit(my estimate). The SIA is cautious and will adjust their growth prediction of 22% down to whatever will happen.

Taiwan semi is comparing current 70% capacity utilization to last year's 105 to 110%. Their numbers are inline with Motorola and Compaq. But look, Motorola is Taiwan semi's customer. So, this projection is adulterated.

My estimate with 30 years of semi experience is that 22% may still be achievable at the tail end of the year. Early disappointment is because Motorola has no new cell phone(2g, 2.5g and 3g?) planned, they just start to design new models again. While Compaq is suffering the Pentium 4 popularity problem. As new products roll out, the business will come back.
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