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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: Razorbak who wrote (87646)2/18/2001 2:14:59 PM
From: Sharp_End_Of_Drill  Read Replies (4) of 95453
 
Razor, with my novice at best understanding of TA I'd have to agree with short candidates OII and MDR. But, alas I have a couple of questions.

1) The charts for SLB do look strong but I have to wonder if long is really the way to go. FA on SLB has shown for a long long time that they are IMO overvalued. Compared to pseudo peers HAL, and some less direct comparisons like BHI, BJS, etc. they have always demanded what I consider to be an undeserved premium. I had chalked it up to their semi-tech flavor with the smart card biz. Perhaps what we are seeing here is the tech premium unwind, and TA may be giving false buy signals. I don't know but time will tell.

2) It seems like what you mention is akin to taking an option straddle. If so, then why not just do a pure straddle on SLB? If the TA is correct and it goes up you win, if #1 above is correct and it continues down you win. Trick is just getting enough movement either way.

3) In light of your short candidate charts I plugged in RIG. It looks equally vulnerable to a drop, with most but not all indicators showing the same thing as your choice. I'd love to hear from anybody with a RIG opinion as I currently have a combination straddle / SATB thing going on with them.

Thanks for your input, and cheers to the board for some great posts of late.

Sharp
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