It will be interesting. the signs of a shakeout since the somewhat inexplicable January rally are definitely getting there, imo.
Looking at things in a micro sense, there are fewer and fewer techies that are left to get beat up. Maybe MSFT has some downside (it's still off it's lows) some inexplicable ones like RIMM are still hanging up there, but when you go down the list and look at charts of INTC, CSCO, DELL, LU, NT etc, they are pretty ugly. My sense is the institutions pretty much have liquidated a lot of their positions in these already (or achieved a long term balance where they can live with further downside), and since all of the news on these have been bad, further surprises may only be on the upside. These CEO's aren't stoopid, only NT had kept their rosy picture, the rest I think, have really been very conservative and have made their projections on the low. low, low side of what they think will happen this year.
To have a solid correction tho, I too think we need the big "flush". One really good shake of the tree, absent of any news would be really welcome, imo.
I don't know about you, but I havent seen a wave of "panic selling" since last April, even with some 6%-10% intraday swings on the QQQ this past 9 months. That's what I am waiting for before I will stick some (perceived) tech gems in my LT account, and maybe add a 3-6 month out INTC or CSCO call. |
