Thread,
Following up on the E. Ross interview, I wanted to say that it may be time to reintroduce the original purpose of this thread.....investing in stocks and more specifically AMD. That's not to say I don't want to continue our diverse posting; on the contrary I really like that aspect of this thread. But at the same time, I would like to see if we can't benefit financially as well.
The reason I am bringing this up is because of what's happened with the Naz during past year.....as we all know its been a disaster and I don't think there is a tech portfolio that has been left unscathed. But there is that old Chinese saying...out of every crisis comes opportunity. And the opportunity for us is that we may be at the beginning of the best buying opp in tech in at least 5 years.....kind of like buying AMD in 1999 at 17 pre-split.
Clearly, this thread has a lot of opinionated posters...so lets put our $$$ where our mouths are. Milo, Tim and Scott post fairly regularly on AMD tech issues whereas I post mostly on finanical issues and opportunities re AMD and other stocks in general.
I want to post more on this issues, and see if we can maintain as lively a discourse on the Bushes and the Clintons. I would like to see other serious investors like Kash join in as well.
BTW I have become more and more convinced that this next PC semi cycle will be AMD's to rule. I think Intel is stuck with Barrett who I don't think is the right leader for Intel at this time. In the meantime AMD, unlike years past, can't seem to do anything truly wrong, and respect for the company is growing. I think that a 30% market share for AMD is in the cards over the next two years. And although I still don't like Ruiz, I plan to start buying the stock again. I believe in the next few weeks it will retreat to $20 where it has strong support before it resumes a definite move up. That's where I plan to buy. Do any others agree or disagree?
In addition I have gingerly started buying some other tech stocks that I think have bottomed. When I say gingerly, I mean only a few shares. My determining to buy is predicated upon the price reaching a level where the stock's P/E is lower than its growth rate. For an example, I bought some NTAP at $34 last week becauase at that price its P/E for the year ending April, 2001 is less than its growth rate for its latest quarter reported last week. My decision was reinforced by the fact that NTAP is in data storage which is expected to grow ad infinitum.
This week I bought SUNW at 23.5 again for the same reasons although I am less confident of this buy because the growth of the server market is not as dependable as data storage.....and SUNW could fall more. Another buy was NOK in the low 30's and I may have been too early. Some others that I am getting ready to buy soon are ADCT and RFMD...more as trades, then holds. I believe they have bottomed or are very close to bottoming, and both are excellent companies.
Still others I am watching very closely are BRCD, JNPR, CIEN, AMCC, PMCS, VTSS, SCMR, KEI and NEWP. These are some of the last to bottom and I don't think they are there yet [of course I could be wrong]. I have determined where each has significant support and where I suspect a bottom will be called and I will be glad to share that info with anyone interested.
Finally, I am trying to figure out what will be the next crop of tech leaders. Some stocks that have continued to do fairly well during the Naz slaughter are: PLNR, MRVL, XXIA, STOR, ELNT, ARXX and PIII. Some of them may have a shot at being the next JNPR or NEWP.
And then I have some much longer term stocks that I am watching as well....a couple are MXC and NSYS. These companies while very small became profitable early on and have good prospects for growth. Who wouldn't like to buy the next JDSU or the next JBL at $7 per share?
Comments please? What stocks are you all watching? Do you think the worse is over for the Naz? If not, why?
Scott, why do you not invest in stocks? While it takes some $$$, it does not have to be huge sums. You can start off small like Tim and I did.
That's all, folks.
ted |
