Sharp - I agree with your assessment of RIG as a short candidate, especially in view of the long tail piercing the 200 MA on Friday and closing back below. I was surprised by the midday strength on Friday, although that could have been nervous short covering due to the attack on Iraq. Still, there is an open window between 52.75 to 53 that may draw the price upward, but I don't think it is strong enough to overcome the negative trend in the OSX. Stochs and MACD seem to confirm, but I've seen them bounce around and reverse often enough to account for a few grey hairs <g>.
stockcharts.com[l,a]daclyymy[pb50!b200!d20,2!e5!i][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La12,26,9!Lb14!Lc20!Ld20!Lf!Lg!Lj[$spx]!Lk14!Ll14]
The odds are we'll see a strong open Tuesday, which may be a good opportunity to short. A weak open and I'd play wait and see. Again the ME situation is unsettling enough to be unusually cautious as sudden news events can be very costly if you're short.
Looking at NE and SII, Friday looked very weak. SII had some unusual after hours trades that took the close from 77.04 to 78 on 3 trades (1K, 68.8K and 6K) which looked like some creative tape painting. Don't know what to make of that.
stockcharts.com[l,a]daclyymy[pb50!b200!d20,2!e5!i][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La12,26,9!Lb14!Lc20!Ld20!Lf!Lg!Lj[$spx]!Lk14!Ll14]
stockcharts.com[l,a]daclyymy[pb50!b200!d20,2!e5!i][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La12,26,9!Lb14!Lc20!Ld20!Lf!Lg!Lj[$spx]!Lk14!Ll14]
Both NE and SII I like for potential shorts because of the huge gaps in their past that provide nice targets, but I would say whereas NE is likely to close its gap near term, SII may not see that 65 level for some time. Of course I thought that back in December too and sure had the **** scared out of me <g>.
I don't know the significance of the purple zig zags in these charts or how to interpret them, but they seem to counter the down-trend argument. Anyone familiar with them?
Alex |
