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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 205.66

-7.6%

12:10 PM EST

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To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (118109)	2/18/2001 9:32:05 PM
From: Mark Fowler	Read Replies (1) of 164685

CREDIT SUISSE FIRST BOSTON CORPORATION Equity Research Americas U.S. / Technology / b2b eCommerce Erik Swords 1- BUY LARGE CAP USD 24.06 Ariba, Inc. (ARBA) Dell Marketplace Shutdown is Only Noise; Accumulate Shares on Weakness Summary Dell's decision to shut down its small to mid-sized business commerce storefront has zero financial implications on ARBA (site represented less than 0.05% of ARBA's total revenue). More importantly, we don't believe it is a representative sample of the success ARBA is achieving in the market. Bottom line the site was outside the core competency of Dell's focus - small to mid-sized MRO procurement. Shutdown has nothing to do with ARBA's platform . Rather, Dell management believed the site was not achieving the success of the orignal business plan and was not the focal point of senior level attention. Dell is actually live internally with thousands of ARBA users worldwide (APAC up next week). Dell believes so strongly in ARBA's value proposition that they will be reselling and embedding ARBA on their servers WW. Industry contacts tell us that there is significant repeat revenue opportunity ($20M+) left at Dell (across both ARBA and AGIL). And distribution arrangement could generate 5x that amount for ARBA over the next three to five years. We would use share weakness to accumulate positions in ARBA. Price Target Mkt.Value 52-Week 02/15/011 (12mo.) Div. Yield (MM) Price Range USD 24.06 -- -- None $6,657.4 $30.5 - $211 Annual Prev. Abs. Rel. EV/ EBITDA/ EPS EPS P/E P/E EBITDA Share 12/02E $0.56 43.0X NA 12/01E $0.26 92.5 NA 12/00A ($0.15) NA NA Dec. March June Sept. FY End 2002E $0.10 $0.12 $0.15 $0.18 Sept. 2001E $0.05 $0.06 $0.07 $0.08 2000A ($0.04) ($0.06) ($0.05) ($0 ROIC (12/00) Total Debt (12/00) Book Value/Share (12/00) WACC (12/00) Debt/Total Capital (12/00) Common Shares 276.7 EP Trend2 Est. 5-Yr EPS Growth Est. 5-Yr. Div. Growth ************************************* ssuming Coverage of B2B Leaders Summary We are assuming formal coverage of Ariba (ARBA, $34, Buy) and Commerce One ( CMRC, $29, Strong Buy). No change in rating or estimates. Few organizations have achieved the notion of a transparent supply chain. Early adopters are still cleansing their internal operations, providing another leg of upcoming growth as they begin to weave together internal processes with supply chain partners. ARBA and CMRC are the leading gateways to multi-enterprise collaboration. Both provide a range of software and bundled services to enable organizations to communicate with multiple participants both inside and beyond the firewall (customers, partners, and employees). We consider ARBA and CMRC as core holdings for long-term focused investors. We are just passing through an initial wave of customer adoption with multiple stages yet to hit.

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