bear markets are hallmarked by regular and frequent big downdraft days like Friday
explosive counter-trend rallies happen less then 1/3 as often
and usually after remaining oversold for some period of time
if you have evidence to the contrary, I would be glad to eat your shorts, after a long hike in the woods
I said "SHORT", which means in my vernacular selling the common shares short, or buying option puts, that is all
any inference beyond that is pathological
I realize this thread is pathologically bullish, but perhaps I must accept its general pathology
as for writing the epitaph for the bear, let me know when the Naz rises and remains above its 18dayMA, or its 30dayMA, or its 50dayMA
it rose above these critical MA's simultaneously on four days in January (yes, 4)
for the past two weeks, the Naz cannot rise even above the flimsy 18dayMA
it did break the downtrend channel in lateJan
right now, the Naz cannot even find the bull's jockstrap
the bear still breathes, my man
in the first week of Jan, the sudden 250-pt Naz jump was forfeited in two days
in the month of Feb, the nice 500-pt Naz rise was forfeited in three weeks
I am now wondering if indeed we are witnessing a technical springboard for now a gradual healthy sustainable Naz rise
with the USdollar holding hostage the Fed and GreenSpasm, dont expect rapid regular rate cuts to foster a great recovery
I expect several little 25 bpt cuts which will help the Naz rise steadily
dont bogart that joint, my friend
/ jw |
