...You don't know how bad the "leak" is, but you will.
So, you base this ongoing thesis on what these days? Is it still all
emotionally driven for you, or do you have something more interesting
now, like a Mayan Calendar reading?
It's February '01. Let's recap:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
[1] PC biz is crashed as predicted (Sun sells no PCs)
[2](a) .com's lost their 'burn rate' permits (<10% of Sun's biz)
[2](b) Sun's biggest chunk of rev comes from Fortune 1000
(Global 1000 actually) brick and fully capitalized companies,
public and private. (and there isn't a lump of used .com gear swelling
the channel)
[3](a) Earnings warnings (post lowered estimates) from Sun competitors
[3](b) Credible and conservative SUNW CFO says 25% - 30% earnings growth
'no matter what' (equiv to fy2000 guidance). Sun has
no doubts about further increasing market share.
[4] The NASDAQ is crashed because [1], [2a], and [3a]
[5] There is, approaching 3 Trillion US dollars out of the market and
currently stuffed in mattresses with another Trillion
about to be kicked in by the (we're help-ing) Reps - PLUS, Uncle Al is
willing to go Crazy Eddie on interest rates (break glass in case of
irrational malaize?). That is a lot of trillions.
[6] Europe and Asia coming out of down cycle. 'Global' is
heating up.
[7] Broadband is breaking out. More service driven computing, more storage,
more scalable servers, more Network is the Computer.
[8](a) Sun and open standards *dominate the server side.
[8](b) Microsoft is an enterprise joke *and* a monopolist under review.
[9] Sun, for all it's leaping and bounding, quarter after quarter, did make
most all of its rev with core product (scalable server systems and
technical workstations), and they're currently transitioning to new
product cycle of same. There is tremendous upside potential for
software rev growth, storage product rev growth, server appliance rev,
and reason to expect all 3 of those.
[10] You, SuperDale, turn more cycles on Sun servers and write more data to
remote storage arrays than you do with your SuperDale PC (and HD) and
you're not expecting that trend to change.
-JCJ |
