To all:
I haven't had anything to say on this thread for a while,
so I haven't said it.
But I've been lurking,
and I wanted to thank you all for the quality of the discussion.
I'm glad to see that the thread has taken up the subject of Valuation (sign of the times :)).
I'm double-plus-un-glad to report that my habitual focus on Valuation has not spared me in this downturn.
I was 70% cash for the first half of 2000, and then misjudged that the time was right to jump back in. A tad early, as it turns out. My largest purchase was a Value stock, well managed, good longterm track record, good balance sheet (debt a bit high, but a large secure cash flow quite adequate to service the debt and fund expansion), good prospects for solid (but not Gorilla-type) growth, PEG much lower than any of the Gorillas. I loaded up on Worldcom at prices between 40 and 30. Ughhh. Let me say that again, as it expresses my feelings perfectly. Ughhhh. While Growth investors learned the pain of 200 PE stocks going to 20, I (the Value Investor in Safe Stocks) learned the pain of 20 PE stocks going to 2. Relatively speaking, there isn't much to choose between those varieties of pain. Value is not a synonym for safety, and forward earnings estimates are a moving target for all stocks.
However, the other 2 of my 3 largest purchases last year are doing OK (CMH, average cost 8.1, now 13.4; and QCOM average cost 67, now 81). |
