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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity

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To: jim_p who wrote (2)	2/19/2001 1:02:43 PM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (1) of 23153

I believe that Naz 3000 is probably the top for the next six months or so, and that we will stay in a range which will be better for trading than investing. (2400-3000) The bottom I see is 2350. I would be fully invested in tech stocks now. If we break the old lows, I would add on margin in increments of 100 naz points as we fall below 2300. (20% margin at 2200, 40% at 2100, 60% at 2000, 80% at 1900 and 100% at 1800). I would start to sell at 2800 and be 1/2 out by 3000. I would never sell 100% of the stocks, but am willing to trade 1/2 of the core holdings in the 2400-3000 range. My logic is: 1. A fall below 2300 will not last long. 2. It is not possible to pick the bottom. 3. Cash levels are still extremely high. 4. The time to invest is when everyone is selling. It takes a strong stomach, but it will pay off in the long run. Jim

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