Jim,
Your logic and mine are pretty much in sync, the only difference is one of caution and optimism. Tech may be the market leader in 2001, but 1) it will be based on their incredibly low starting point on Jan 2 and 2) the other markets may get shattered. I do agree that tech is the future and once we work out the kinks it will get rolling again. I have no idea when we'll see a Naz 5000 again but it may not be until we have a year which ends in a "4." I'm going to be cautious in any case because I always fear "The Big Irrational Event" (which see, LTCM) and want to experience zero risk of a margin call.
Fwiw, I own LPTH to trade, and I think maybe NETA and INSP are worth owning at these prices. I don't have much interest in DELL or the other box makers, although an argument can be made that you should own ORCL, SUNW (which I do) and CSCO, INTC, MSFT as your core holdings in any tech portfolio. To me that sounds a little like the "you must own IBM" mantra from the 70's and 80's.
Where do you see energy and, in particular, the OSX trading in the near, middle and long term? I still see the energy bull intact on a multi-year basis, subject to some pretty violent and nasty corrections. It's looking a little tired here for this run, imho.
siliconinvestor.com
A dip this time into the mid teens?
Kb |
