ild, For more on my CEF European and Japan picks, see the note today to Chris Pedicini.
For the market, I think we are just about into a fatal final rally phase, which could be moderately powerful. However powerful it will be, it will be free of any conviction and whatever takes it down will seem like the straw that broke the camel's back. I think the market is rallying into what will become a general bear market. We have already had a mini bear in techs. Other industries are about to follow. But there may be some short term, 3-4 months, money to be made by very fleet bulls.
The economy is probably not going into an official recession just yet. Expect that to happen in the Fall so we can set up for an October massacre.
Bond rates are about as low as they will get and there will be a lot of pain in fixed income. Perhaps more than in stocks.
I still like many cheap biotechs and am watching even more. I like CEGE, MEDX, CRA and Incy at current prices. I would jump back on GZTC in a point or two. LGND remains a favorite, though their financing needs scare me in a weak market environment. And for diversification, HQH is getting into a buying range.
I haven't changed my outlook on my CEF favorites. Still like EF, SWZ, gf, apf, GRR, CET, ECF, and, of course, ASA.
Just remember that all of these long picks are made within the context of long stocks currently only being 10% of my total portfolio. I have 30% in Knighty Tin and 60% in Maximum Income. |
