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Pastimes : Home on the range where the buffalo roam

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To: Boplicity who wrote (10471)	2/20/2001 2:19:29 AM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Read Replies (1) of 13572

Greg, I think that much of the view of the failure of B2C is that we tend to think about it only in the context of pure play companies that started with no existing distribution infrastructure AND most importantly, that are publicly traded. As an example, Amazon took the strategy that market share was more important than profitability. Perhaps ill conceived, but I don't think that the whole B2C model should be judged on the most visible publicly traded companies. I believe that the last mile broadband build out is the key to the success of the internet. There are new techniques for deploying fiber that are faster and cheaper than traditional methods. Additionally, we may see other players who are not currently associated telecommmunications services jump into the fray. Anybody who has the right of way into your home is a candidate (I am thinking local power utilities). The Japanese government is helping to fund the fiber to the home buildout as a way to stimulate the economy. I believe that the ramifications of this will extend beyond the Japanese borders. But as long as U.S. telecommunications companies continue to hold on to their current business models, it will be difficult to move forward. The service providers will need to provide multiple services over one high speed connection for this to be justified. The usage based billing model that generates the vast majority of revenues is a loser going forward and the telcos will be reluctant to give that up. Though, every time that telcos have been given an opportunity to move away from tariffed services, they have jumped on it. I don't buy the bandwidth glut argument either. Just because there is dark fiber in the ground doesn't mean that this should be counted as the existing bandwidth capacity. One thing that was pointed out to me today was that the contract manufacturers are doing pretty good in this market, despite all of the negativity. This, of course because the CMs cut costs right off the bottom line. The other part of that story is that the best model for the CMs has them connected to their customer through an extranet connection. Lots of explorers out there with arrows in their backs, but they blazed a decent trail....at least so that the settlers can move out and avoid the dangerous paths that were taken by the explorers. I still think that the best is yet to come.

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