Welcome Own to this house. Useful to have differing views on the same underlying situation.
I do still hold some meaningful positions in “techie-ish” shares (AOL, SNE and CHL), a bunch of meaningless residual positions to keep me following the companies and reading the news, and certainly intend to opportunistically trade some as they get kneed again and again.
By your Profile, if it is up to date, I see you like the SDLI VTSS JDSU BRCM of this world. You are brave.
<<top 100 (mostly techs) are still too high by traditional methods of valuation, I would argue they are in fact greatly undervalued...>>
I agree that this is the argument and time will tell, probably rather quickly.
<<worlds largest construction project: the world wide web...>>
Building the infrastructure and making money from it are two distinct activities, as in the case for canals, railroads and telephone networks. Advise exposure in said infrastructure and service plays, but also diversification, direct hedging and zero leverage.
<<little acknowledged indirect spinoff of the web has been dramatic increases in productivity...worldwide…direct costs and overhead are much reduced...I work at home from time to time...>>
Agree. I am doing more valuable work in less time than I had ever before, and the stocks of companies responsible deserve, in the aggregate, an increase in value, and I an increase in standard of living.
<<Not to be forgotten is the increase in personal liberty (although one would argue this is a reason for some govs to fear it>>
Agree. I believe the net, together with borderless commerce, will ultimately force all governments to be more transparent, accountable, and rely on a value-added taxation system.
<<Therefore, I would argue the "bloom" the tech sector was blessed with was a fair recognition of the increase in world economic value it was creating. It had reasonable value received for substantial value created.>>
The bloom may have been a combination of recognizing the increase of economic value due to technology adoption and an over-recognized due to money creation. Historically, without exception, indigestible money creation has always accompanied new and truly disruptive technology adoption.
<< Greenspans increase in the rate to limit the US tech sector>>
Greenspan increased rate to correct for the unforeseen increase in liquidity forced by the Russian and Asian crisis, as well as to limit the enthusiasm of stock punters.
<<his subsequent failure to "floor it" following his (even he recognizes it) mistake is going to leave him looking like the biggest monkey-head in history>>
Agree, but for different reasons. He looks like a monkey for not staying the course so as to deflate an unsustainable and unwise bubble.
<< you have to consider indirect economic benefits too, because the "books, formulas, and theories" are only a crude model of reality>>
Agree.
<<The mental capacity to see beyond the "books" is called vision>>
Agree. And so folks should stop reading Business 2.0 and The Industry Standard, or if they must as I do, then at least read “Devil takes the Hindmost” as well. The mental capacity to see beyond books, and beyond vision is called caution.
Chugs, Jay |
