Looks like a solid group of familiar names here. I'm really looking forward to seeing where this goes.
Y'awl have cnyndwllr to blame for telling me where you've been hiding <g>. I'm gonna plan on following and hopefully adding something worthwhile.
WRT tech: While granting that speaking in generalities can be of limited use, I'll offer my position in the bearish to skeptical camp. No doubt, jim_p's value-oriented tech choices are reasonably well researched and represent sound business at reasonable valuations. I still cling to many of my "special situation" microcap E&Ps even given the perhaps dubious progression of the short-term energy fundamentals. So, I'm sure not intending to throw stones in that direction.
My long-standing concerns about many "new era" managers are now intensified given the suddenly uncertain outlook. Many of these businesses have heretofore only had to deal with ramping up capacity fast enough to deal with ever-soaring demand. Now that the Y2K spending and at least a substantial part of the domestic internet buildout is behind us, can the managers adapt?
Signs presently abound that business is deteriorating. Yet, are there any signs of the much anticipated recovery, or is that just hope (a dirty word where my money is concerned)? Maybe one can't fight the Fed., but can the Fed. somehow deal with what I imagine to be staggering overcapacity in areas of the tech sector? Everyone is focused on the inventory problem, but if such overcapacity does indeed exist, it will linger on long after the inventory glut is worked off. IMO, even a solid economic recovery led by monetary policy (a big question here) can't begin to revive the insane growth assumptions that had been built into tech valuations. Collapsing margins will necessitate further revaluations of the production capacity. My perception that much of this capacity secures a whollotta debt could make this anything but a calm process.
It's just amazing to me how the Wall-Street authored messages get so conveniently and consistently edited. One year ago, tech's non-stop, ballistic growth was a sure thing. Immune from the business cycle and soforth. Everyone couldn't help but continue to increase IT spending forever after. Now, the Fed's going to breath life back into our debt-ridden, imbalanaced economy, and that will fix whatever's ailing tech. My belief is that where there are free markets, there's cyclicality. If the excess on the upside of this tech cycle is any indication of the adjustments that are needed on the downside, well we each can draw our own picture.
I too read the Forbes piece on Dreman. Was quite disappointed with his choices. Another indication to me that the last 3 years have unduly twisted the views of even the most seasoned value player.
Saw just now on the SD thread the following comment about NT <<Figure in the worst case they make $1 this year, giving them a forward PE of 19>>. That's exactly the type of loose talk that scares me, for in the world of equity ownership I always felt that "worst case" was that I'd lose all my money. Let's see.... consensus analysts estimates for this year were $0.95 (we all know how conservative they must be <g>), which included a profit of $0.16 for Q1 - which the company has told us will be a loss instead. If this is at all representative of the battlecry for big-cap tech here, I'm dodging this draft.
I could go on, but it would be a shame to get booted out of here on my very first post. So I'll conclude by saying that I'll be interested in tech when nobody else is. Seems clear that we aren't there yet, anyone else see what they'd term a capitulation?
Don't claim to understand tech, and I certainly could be missing the most important dynamics of the industry that everyone else seems tuned into. I'll stick to the less crowded arenas.
Best regards to all. |
