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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth
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To: John Pitera who wrote (85631)2/20/2001 4:19:25 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (1) of 86076
 
i know...this number is from last week. but the poll data are far less important to me than the positioning data...and the speculator long positions in the S&P and NAZ futures all hit fresh record highs last week. so while they may say that they are bearish, or rather less bullish, they keep hanging on to record long positions (the small trader categories show the biggest net long exposure by far).
furthermore, the excessive bullishness evident all of last year in both the polls and positioning measures (in spite of the huge drop in the Nasdaq) lasted for months on end, with nary a wiggle. to balance this excess, we'd have to see weeks of extreme bearishness...one week's poll data from a single poll doesn't mean much in this context.
on Friday e.g. the bottom pickers made a statement by moving big into Rydex bull funds - the Rydex ratio at 0,14 is an eternity away from capitulation levels.
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