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Politics : Ask Michael Burke

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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (89702)	2/20/2001 4:49:16 PM
From: Kapusta Kid	Read Replies (1) of 132070

Barton Biggs on Japan: In all my many trips to Japan, I have never experienced such doom and gloom as I heard last week. Shorter-term vicious cycles of recession and a sick banking system intertwine with even more virulent secular vicious circles of deflation, leverage and demographics. A new banking crisis could occur any day. No one should expect any help for the world economy from Japan. On the other hand, I believe Japanese stocks are undeniably the cheapest in the world. All the "contrary" indicators in terms of sentiment and asset allocation ratios are flashing green. Both Japan's economy and stock market are at almost exactly the opposite ends of the boom-bust cycle as America's. Japan has always responded powerfully to great dangers. I don't see big risk in the market from these levels unless the world falls apart. For those that have to be somewhere, I would be equal weight to the MSCI index with the objective of cutting back if the Nikkei approached 16000. Hmmm. Problem is that I make the chances of the world falling apart about 9-2 against.

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