to the thread shorts and longs:
Shorts want to know where and when to cover their shorts.
Longs want to know when to add to their positions, (or when to initiate a long position, if you are on the sidelines, like me). So, we have a common interest in figuring out where the bottom is, and none of us really know for sure.
It would be useful to everyone if we could have a polite discussion, with posts that include facts and reasoning, to try and figure out where the bottom is. Recently, this thread has become like a YHOO thread.
I have a proposal: all the thread posters could post their best guess for the CSCO low for 2001, with reasoning. I'll compile a list, and repost it at the end of the year.
I'm extremely uncertain. Normally, I'd look at the usual PE range for a stock, try to estimate forward earnings, make a guess for what the PE will be, and come up with a stock price guess (EPS X PE). But, with CSCO (and Cisco) at the moment, it's all in flux. We've taken out the bottom valuation range, and the forward earnings have been called into question. The chart hasn't shown any support.
My best guess today is a low for 2001 of 20 on CSCO. But I wouldn't be surprised at anything between 10 and today's closing price. |
