JRI,
Look at the what the market is telling us. With each new trading day we are seeing new lows in all the major players. CSCO, SUNW, JNPR, PMCS, JDSU, LU... just to name a few. But yet many including most of the pros on CNBC have their heads in the sand. They are moving blindly, identifying only with prior history. Telling investors to buy this group based off previous fed moves. Well that's fine and dandy if this time is not different. But what if it is! What if this time all roads do not lead to the same place?? Way back in November I started talking about the negative formations of charts across the board. My calls have always been based off the very basic idea that charts with bullish or bearish patterns will see prices move in the obvious direction. The charts have not lied. It's interesting because looking at the charts now it really is so plain to see, now that time has filled in so many of the pieces. Price - not history is my main concern. I have to respect that if I want to stay in this business. I also have to respect the fact that prices are breaking into new lows. Those new lows and the overall structure of the charts themselves tells me that the bottom is not in. That's why I have gone out on a limb with so many calls that may have sounded crazy just a few months ago, but yet look at where we're at today. AMZN was 80 in November, BRCM 227, JDSU 80, what about CSCO in the mid 60's. We have seen some serious price erosion. A process that is not complete. Prices will continue to weaken, to include the MSFT and INTC that you mentioned. In fact that weakness will become more apparent (accelerate) as we head into the end of the first quarter. The next couple of weeks will send prices for the generals into the unbelievable territory.
Regards,
SO
ps Let me just add that I seriously doubt that we will see another preemptive move by the fed in the next couple of weeks. If we do and psychology is bullish overall I still do not see any kind of move up before the end of the first quarter. And when I look at the chart for a company like MOT I see a stock that has a date with destiny with prices 50% cheaper from where we are at right now. That's why I'm inclined to believe that the lows are not in. |
