Sportsman:
Palm's Q3 guidance was for $465 - $490 million total revenues, 97% of which are "devices" and "accessories". PC Data's "data" covers only the retail channel via a 60% or so sample of the largest retailers like Best Buy et al, and does not include sales via internet retailers or direct sales by Palm. I have some data somewhere on who and what % of the retail channel they monitor, but it's fairly accurate for that sales channel. A couple of points:
(1) My previous comparisons of Palm's total device sales vs PC Data's numbers showed that the retail channel accounted for about 60% (+/-) of overall sales, I haven't done this comparison yet for the Q2 data but I will. The rest come from direct sales to corporations and institutions, direct sales from online web sites (palm itself and all the others), and other minor sales channels.
(2) To hit the upper guidance number of $490 million, they need to sell around $90 million worth of devices via retail in February ($490 million x 0.6 - $154 million - $51 million). They already said the Q is normally back end loaded, so it doesn't (on the surface) appear to be a "disaster" in the making. Of course, if all other non-retail sales channels dry up, Palm (and we) might be in deep doo doo.
Of course, the investing public may well take this PC Data report at face value, think that's all the sales they've had, and sell the stock anyway.
Hope this helps.
David T. |
