Right now, I have my trading cap on (and not my long-term investing cap on....):
If major blocks (buys) start going off during a fearful plunge....I believe that there are enough experienced hands on Wall Street to know that the PPT is in there doing their thing....and those "experienced hands" will jump in and buy the rally.......as well will the swing/day traders, and institutional/hedge money that trades, and short getting squeezed like no tomorrow........now, how many pts.??? No clue, I would expect a couple hundred COMPX at least (and then the inertia from the rally would have to take over to get things to go higher), but, at a minimum the PPT will give us a better rally with (than without), I believe...
Now, say that initial rally fails....if we fall back to the levels (where the PPT 1st came in...), I think it makes sense for them to defend that level again....and, if they do, we start the cycle (somewhat) over again....but THIS TIME, the technical guys will be happy because they have their tested double-bottom, so you have some additional (longer-term?) money jumping in the 2nd go 'round..
Ditto rate cut...although I think a rate cut will be sold off a bit quicker...
Final point: It really is amazing how current times are a mirror image of a year ago.....Last March, bulls were saying that Fed rate cuts were irrelevant....growth would go on forever and ever because of the internet, and tech-driven productivity/cost-savings for corporations, and there was no stopping stock prices from going up and up......blah, blah.....now, the bears in the audience are so certain that Greenspan's cuts will have no real effect (to Naz stock prices), and is pushing on a string with the economy...there is almost a "disrespect" as to what Greenspan can accomplish here (similar to what bulls thought last March), and stock prices can fall much, much further down from here (even after a 50% haircut on the Naz)........Last March, obviously, was the time to sell....Now???
(Caveat: I do think we have more disbelief to go, and would love to see some fearful capitulation....but the market is almost certainly starting to price in a 0% chance of recovery before 2002...once that's priced in (Naz 1900-2000?), maybe these forces (PPT, and, "hey, maybe things we'll get better before 2002" will provide some inertia on the upside. Also, we got in this mess relatively quickly (ie, falloff in demand/oversupply...perhaps we'll get a more rapid recovery than expected....perhaps with all this "new fangled software"....things just happen must quicker now, both down and up...)
Final word: The charts look horrible. No doubt. I trust them more than my regurgitations... |
