You know, I am starting to think that we are going to see a a large plurality of bottoms and bounces, none of them really persuasive until everyone gives up on seeing "capitulation", then they'll hit us between the eyes (highs?) and unexpectedly drive this thing down and finally give us that , IMHO, required clean up capitulation. If that is the case, about around here we should turn, at least for a DCB. Note that we had an extremely negative Trin of 10 just few days ago, a tic almost equal the Jan 3rd tic. My most likely scenario, however, disregards these musing. I have a mild rebound tomorrow, probably being sold, but not too harshly, the real hard times being from Thursday through Tuesday morning, maybe even a "black Monday" thrown in for good measure. After that, we bounce, but just to about 2400 (my number is 2388), until about the 5th of March, and then retest the February 27th low on March 9th. If this Monday is a black Monday, then the 9th will probably not match the Tuesdays lows. Just a "temporary road map, which i am sure the market will force me to change in a hurry...
Zeev |
