| As for the Dow, if the Nasdaq hadn't been committing this yearlong indiscretion, no one would be so terribly impressed that the Dow's been hanging around in low five-digit land. Instead, everyone would be complaining that it's hardly budged in a couple years. S&P, same thing. (Plus I agree with Bobby that the NYSE's lookin roly-poly.) Both of the major disgusting boring Old Economy indices have been putting crowns on their secular bull market moves - which likewise would strike people as a whole lot more parabolically precipitous if not for the Nasdaq. From a long-term perspective, each broke its uptrend months ago or more, and has been hanging around a trading range ever since, with the implicit danger of what some might call a "long overdue correction" in force all the while. If we weren't near the beginning of an interest rate easing cycle, I'd have to consider a breakdown below 52-wk lows (at least) in all the major indices to be almost a given. Tonight, it seems likely, but I don't look at the boring disgusting Old Economy indices very much, so I don't trust myself on them. If the charts on either happened to look a little better, or if the Nasdaq wasn't being so Nasdaq, I guess I'd be more strongly emphasizing, that a chance of a breakout to the upside and resumed upward movement can't be excluded either. |
