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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 670.21

-1.1%

Nov 6 4:00 PM EST

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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (69793)	2/21/2001 1:46:48 AM
From: Psycho-Social	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Last March like Jan '66 top: Personally I use '68 as the final inflation-adjusted high, with the S&P as the benchmark, but there's no disputing that little progress was made after Jan'66. Using the charts of immigration-adjusted birth rates in Harry Dent's Roaring 2000's books, however, I conclude that we're not yet in the comparable period of the (approx) 40 yr birth cycle. Annualized birth rates plateaud between 1957-61 in the 5 to 5.1 million range, and rose moderately from 2.8 to 3.5 million in the late 30's and early 40's. Thus, we are undergoing a significant narrowing of the investor vs divestor spread, but the number of people entering their 40's still greatly outnumbers the # about to retire. My conlusion: demographic forces are still positive but weakening.

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