James, Jack, et al - Rough day today! Conditions in market make due diligence a must. In that regard, I offer the following.
I am going to try and put together a top-down quarterly forecast for Ciena and a projection through 2005. Why 2005? Today I heard a piece form IndividualInvestorOn24 about Ciena.
It included the following two items: 1) DWDM market expected to grow from $7.4 billion in 2000 to $36.5 billion in 2005; 2) Worldwide optical transport market expected to double from $23.5 billion in 2000 to $57.4 billion in 2005.
The piece also included a reference to metro, but did not give any growth projections. It did say that metro should grow with the coming of wireless Internet access. I assume these are related because wireless Internet access will explode the amount of Internet traffic in any metro area.
I am assuming these are the three areas that Ciena plays in. Any clarification or added explanation anyone can offer will be appreciated.
Also I am planning to divide Ciena's revenues into the following categories and initial (for 2001) percentages: DWDM - 80%; Switching (CD/CI) 10%; Metro - 7%; all else (including services) 3%.
I will not try and develop a net contribution by category, but will do a gross margin by category. So any help with estimating individual product gross margins will be helpful.
The earliest I expect to get this done is while I am travelling the first week of March. I would be happy to post my work, when done, to a website for others to view and contribute. However, since I know nothing about how to do this, I will need someone else to take this on.
P.S. - In this II piece, they named Williams as a Ciena customer. I know this was rumored in the past, but do not remember seeing public confirmation. Did I miss this, or is this new info? |
