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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory
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To: Hawkmoon who wrote (3285)2/21/2001 10:04:03 AM
From: John Pitera   of 33421
 
it will be interesting to see how this impacts the Northern Virginia area which currently has something like a 2% unemployment rate and is the equivalent of Silicon Valley East.

that 2% unemployment underscores part of the FED's dilemma. Jan Service Prices advanced .9%
it was still up .4% ex energy. That's and annual rate of 4.5% (3.4% ex-energy) compared to a 2.6% rise in
commodity prices. The FED is concerned about the economy slowing down, but also needs to
look at the inflationary push of wage prices.

today's CPI numbers:

January CPI rose 0.6%, 0.3% core.
The 3.9% surge in energy prices provided half the CPI gain.
Medical care jumped 0.6%, twice the size of the trend increase.
Tobacco prices rose 1.9%.
1% surge in housing is deceiving; 0.3% rise in shelter, 5.9% jump in fuels/utilities.
0.5% rise in vehicles came from 0.9% rise in used, new rose just 0.1%.
Annual growth in CPI lifted back to 3.7%. Core steady at 2.6%.
Services (58% of CPI) trends higher at 4.5% yoy, ex-energy 3.4%.

Trade Balance
December trade deficit of $32.994 bln.
Oct and Nov revised slightly higher.
Modest upward downward push to Q4 GDP given larger than expected deficit.
December marked 3rd month of shrinking trade deficit.
Imports showed third month of decline as consumer demand weakened.
Import decline influenced by strong rise in petroleum product volume as prices fell off.
Exports fell off for a 4th consecutive month given falling global demand.
Nafta deficit widened as Pacific Rim and Western Europe contracted (not seasonally adj).

84 billion $ trade inbalance with China.
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