Amy,
First, congratulations on your options position. Regardless of how it turns out, it seems to have given you some level of piece of mind in this market.
Yes more bad news, including the better than expected trade balance, which would lead economists to believe that real GDP is probably lower than expected. Gives FOMC room to move, and there is a rumor (probably untrue) that they are scheduling an "emergency" meeting.
Most economists are still dismissing the inflation numbers. I heard somewhere that natural gas has come down significantly since last month (rarely buy it myself, once or twice a year for the spa <g>).
I don't know what to think. It's clear that market sentiment is very, very low, usually a good time to go long. But I can't see a catalyst to move the market up, beyond an inter-meeting move on interest rates.
And I'm not sure of the stagflation scenario, the inflation part has to be proved. The experts, including the Fed govenors, don't seem to think it's a problem, and they are usually the first to scream (after GV).
I guess I'm still trying to formulate an opinion on how bad things are and how long the downturn will last.
Take care <g>,
John |
