To All,
i luv sunw also, however, i sold my 1500 shares at the latest peak of $65 (dumb luck). WHY did i sell? several reasons
1. i can't pick up the paper/magazine anymore without an article talking about wintel making SERIOUS headway into the server market.
2. sunw trading at around a 25 P/E ratio although not pricey, it is getting close to the high end of their historical P/E trading range.
3. it is my understanding that sunw used to get around $250k per liscense agreement for java, now they are not disclosing that number, so it remains an unknown FOR NOW.
4. the windows nt operating system has growth projections of upward to 50% over the next few years (depending on where you look) while unix systems are in the mid single digits!
5. there are a few manufactureres that used to build their systems around unix that are now starting to adopt the windows nt operating systems.
i am not a msft shareholder or supporter but their late move into the internet/intranet market has been impressive to say the least. i used to own netscape until msft decided that they were going to take this internet/intranet stuff seriously.
if someone can refute my concerns i would gladly become another buyer of sunw, however, i am convinced that cpq, dell etc are going to start taking away business from sunw OR at the least put serious price preasure on SUNW which will start deteriorating sunw's earnings SOON. it is well known that cpq doesn't make much money on personal pc's, if i remember correctly 80% of their profits came from 15% of their sales of servers/workstations, where do you think the competition is going to heat up next with those kind of profit margins, theres alot of margin that sunw will have to start giving up or sharing with others!
my opinion is that this quarter will be a blow out, BUT so does EVERYONE else, this may very well be the peak of sunw's earnings momentum, the latest qoute that McNealy had was that he would try to keep SUNW's earnings growth at 20% for the shareholders. while good i am seeking greater opportunity/risk with my money.
i am not a sunw basher, just the facts as i see them
blaine |
