Dave,
Ted, I think you're nuts to look at the charts right now. Nobody is buying ANYTHING right now, that they don't want to own for any more than a bounce. News is only getting worse about how long corporate spending may not turn up again thru 2001.
Then why did AMD go up today? AMD is at its highest accum/distribution rating in 8 mos. Now Intel's rating is starting to improve as well.
Last June, no one listened when I said AMD was in trouble....its projected EPS was not increasing and its accum. rating had turned neg. Not only did no one listen to me but I didn't take my own good advice and sell the rest of my shares in the $80's. I have learned my lesson...you follow the others, you make a little $$$....you do your own research and follow your own path, you make a lot more $$$. Still learning but getting better. ;~))
The market needs something, anything, to give back some confidence. And for the life of me, I can't think of anything that would do that within the next few months.
There are people who are buying selectively. The markets are made up of people and most people are freaked right now. But their fear arises mostly from the unknown and not the reality. The people who get beyond their fear are buying.
But they are the very smart buyers with deep pockets...they buy when they see certain stocks at their nadir....the best time to buy. But because they have deep pockets,they don't sweat it if a stock drops 4 pts after they buy. They can afford to wait for a definite turn up in market conditions.
Looking at it realistically, AMD's bottom was in the mid teens and Intel's in the low 30's and those bottoms should stay that way barring any serious recession. So downside is limited and the upside huge.
That doesn't mean all tech stocks are in that position...just certain ones.
I'm going to try to play a bounce in late Feb, early March, then possibly go short. NAZ could EASILY hit 2000 (but I think it will stay between 2100 & 2600). Still lots of margin out there ...
The bounce should be tomorrow....if it doesn't happen, the Naz could go to 1500. I don't think that's likely but its not impossible. I will be looking at stocks tonite for possible short term trades. One that today confirmed its low of a week ago was NTAP...bounced off $33. Another one that seems to be hanging tough is ELNT.
But I am staying away from the other storage stocks, the networkers and the related semis. I don't think they have bottomed. And I got burnt by SUNW today..stopped out at 20...bought 50 shares two days ago at 22.
ted |
