It's kind of strange how the "line" moves - QS used to be in the fold of the faithful, now he's "negative", even though as far as I can tell his views have not changed at all.
That's true about the company. Not true about the stock.
Twister's abrasive style can put people off (which I think he gets a kick out of BTW), but in the final analysis he was right. I don't agree with his predictions of a second act for Wintel, but I also don't agree that his posts have been completely without substance. He was sitting here for years asking, sometimes in significant detail, "Why should SUNW have this valuation?" and no substantive answer was ever given because *there was no such answer*. We've seen the proof. We are living through the proof right this second.
I've been watching Louis Rukeyser now for five years. At first I thought it was a good show. Then I realized that it was more like a porno loop, or a repeating episode of Buffy the Vampire Slayer: all the people around the table were robots playing back the same empty drivel week after week, not knowing their asses from a hole in the ground, probably crooks. One of their "dwarves" started voting negative and they fired her. I've seen exactly ONE Rukeyser show in all that time where the guest was worthwhile: a few weeks ago when it was John Bogle. He basically said, "It's too bad these stock pickers you have on every week can't pick stocks worth sh*t." Rukeyser, of course, asked Bogle which stocks he liked anyway. Bogle said he liked index funds.
I certainly don't know anything but I don't think we'll see SUNW at $15 even after they warn tomorrow. But I'm mostly tired of playing this game. I've paid handsomely for my Certificate of Clownhood. I never imagined that SUNW's chart would look like INSP's chart, but it's pretty damn close at this point. One of them is a leader with solid earnings, solid growth and solid prospects. The other is a flakey dotcom headed by a madman (I'll leave it as an exercise for the reader to decide which is which<g>). Their recent charts are alarmingly similar. Regardless of the woulds and the shoulds and the why's, Sun HAS lost 70% of its value in a few months and we ARE in the worst bear market in years which is likely to engulf even the parts that have escaped so far. The trees don't grow to heaven. And at this point, I can't blame Sun's lack of execution for the majority of this decline. They're late on some products while they grow and increase market share...that's not worth a 70% discount according to "logic". It went up on craziness, it went down on craziness, and all we can do is hope it goes up on craziness again.
I don't understand the stock market, and it's going to stay that way.
--QS |
