Kemo, do you remember when you saw that -2100 on the NYSE? Was it the 87 October Massacre? Last year, we had a good bottom at a -1800 reading on the Naz, but that was a "mid year" number, early in the year, for various seasonal reasons i was trying to explain here, the ticks simply does not get that bad even in a panic. Of course, if you give me -1400 or so, and two three days in a row (like till Tuesday Morning), then we put a serious bottom in. By the way, all of the bottoms last year (April, May, late July, October, Nov 30, Dec 20) had ticks that were less negative than the prior bottom (except the May 26 bottom that was the deepest negative tic if memory serves), despite the fact, that each one marked a lower low on the Naz. The tic itself, IMHO, is only one of many indicators, and helps a little in the very short term determination of a local bottom, but by itself, I doubt it has predictive powers as to whether a bottom is the "real bottom" .
Zeev |
