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Pastimes : Home on the range where the buffalo roam

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To: Raymond Duray who wrote (10636)2/21/2001 6:27:00 PM
From: A.L. Reagan  Read Replies (2) of 13572
 
I believe PSI Net is toast as well, and I surmise they are selling the crap out of their remaining shares in EXTR (a stock I follow). Duly note that this is the downside of giving pre-IPO warrants to key customers - chickens which have come home now to roost on EXTR's stock price.

The Corvis' of the world who did the same thing with Williams and Broadwing, etc. will get the same treatment in due course.

BTW, I agree with Art Hogan and have for some time that we have a grinding bear market, not the classic V-shape. If anybody remembers 73-74 it was the same way. The "capitulation" fans are spoiled with memories of Oct. '98 and Oct '87 - it doesn't have to be this way.

I will be looking at "capitulation" when there is steadily decreasing volume, not a blow-off sell frenzy. Barring external events (e.g. full scale war in the Middle East), there is no element of "surprise" (or margin debt) out there IMO to trigger such a panic.

Watch volume. We are not there yet, and the changes in the NAZ count obscure what are still healthy volumes.

I guess this is unfortunate, in that taking a swift upside to the head is preferable than slow suffocation, but wishing don't make it so.
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