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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation
WDC 163.26+3.5%Nov 28 12:59 PM EST

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To: puborectalis who wrote (19251)2/21/2001 8:51:35 PM
From: Ausdauer  Read Replies (2) of 60323
 
Fallope and other thread participants,

There are only three companies making CompactFlash right now.

The Rob Galbraith article about CompactFlash was very interesting.
I have come to the conclusion that there are only three sources
for CompactFlash currently.
These sources are SanDisk, Lexar Media
and Hitachi. The greatest competition is from Hitachi because they
sell competing flash chips and the CF controller (C-series) to the card
assemblers that comprise the majority of the remaining competition
to SanDisk. When Eli said earlier that they have a significant
portion of the CompactFlash market share and "get royalties on the rest"
I interpreted this to mean that they get a small royalty on the flash
component from Hitachi, Samsung or Toshiba. His comments could also
be interpreted to mean that SanDisk somehow gets a small royalty from
Hitachi from the sale of their controller. If this is the case it would
seem logical that any further card assembly royalty would be contested
by the card assemblers. But I suspect that Hitachi's controllers are
used royalty-free currently.
Thus, SanDisk appears to be faced with
an all-or-nothing proposition. If they can get one card assembler
who uses Hitachi's flash/controller combination to sign as a licensee,
then it is possible that others will follow. If the license is contested,
it would appear that nobody would pay at all. Therefore, I find it
bothersome that we continue to have to guess about the licensing
strategy SanDisk is pursuing. I find it equally bothersome that there
has been no new announced '987 licenses. Even worse is the fact that it
is possible to create a CF card using purely Hitachi technology that
outperforms the best flash/controller combo that SanDisk can muster.

The good news is that I think Lexar Media is the only company
with IP that is based primarily on controller architecture. Thus,
it seems as if the greatest opponent has already been defeated.


My greatest fear is that this licensing saga will spill over to MMC.
Right now the announced MMC suppliers are essentially the same companies
that are competing with SanDisk for CF sales. If we are faced with
pricing and marketing as the only features that differentiate SNDK
products from the rest of the pack we have become commodity producers.
But if we can garner a small royalty on any card regardless of origin we
are in a much better position long term.


I hope the SanDisk 10-Q has some details on the progress of '987 licensing.
There seems to be no other way to learn of SanDisk's success in
granting licenses by any other means at the present time.

Aus@wearebasicallyscrewedwithoutlicensees.com
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