David, nice analysis, but my research and financial model speaks a slightly different conclusion. I will be short because I have to go to bed early because I need to catch a plane at 6:10AM tomorrow morning.
Ok,
Your ASP number is a bit lower than mine. This is because according to my own sales channel check on monthly online firms, I can see that PALM has shipped between 400,000 and 500,000 Palm VIIx since January 14th. This is precisely when they promised in the last CC that they would have PALM VIIx available in large quantities. If you look on Cnet, you will see that several onlines actually post the number of PALM VIIx in stock at any one point. After viewing several and calling several, I can see that the average online firm of the 40 or so on CNet, have a NEW average inventory of 10,000 units each. During December and up til January 14th 90 % of those online retailers were " out of stock" so a major inventory event transpired after January 14th that will bring PALM's ASP within the $220-230 range (or higher)for this quarter. I check on those retailers 3 times a week and can say that on average each retailer is selling between 150 and 200 units of the VIIX per day--and up to 300 units per day for some retailers since last Thursday's announcement of a $100 rebate.
Just like to say that I think you will be surprised by Palm's sales in this quarter. My model is at $518 million in revenues....of this revenue, $71 million will come from sales of PALM assessories and about $25 million from Palm OS royalties PLUS cont & access fees. The rest or $422 million will come from device sales of which almost 50% will be Palm VIIX sales.
Well, have to go to sleep. I won't be able to post again until next Sunday, as I plan on being back home Sunday afternoon.
Regards
TOM RC |
