Yes, the small and mid's did well, but the pretty pictures have folded these last few days. Can not see them resuming an sustained move up for a while.
Not picking on you per se, but I disagree very strongly with this view that I read all over the place that one or more of the following is/are true:
** Sentiment is awful
** People are getting bearish
** This is close to capitulation
I just see these sorts of statements as wishful permabull thinking. No different than the other numerous delusions that they have proffered these last many, many months.
Just looking at SI, sentiment will be near awful when the porch stops buying the dip and stock attack stops looking for a support or a technical silver lining everytime we get a TA breakdown.
As for people getting bearish, well, that just is not so, unless you are talking about the commercials. What were the percentage of Ameritrade buys today? What's the allocation in Rydex funds? (Yes, I know they changed some lately, but still crazy on the bullish side).
This is close to capitulation? I don't think so. Capitulation will be unmistakable. When the CSCO routers are jammed with market orders and we get 4 or 5 billion shares and a jaw-dropping slide with trading limits hit other than the obligatory NASDAQ futures lock-limit, then we might be getting capitulation. When Venkie, Voltaire, GZ, ahahaha, the numerous bullish technicians -- the list is too long -- when any of these people give up we can talk capitulation.
A turnaround now will require the perception of compelling value. That's a place we are not yet very close to. I pray that I will not be stubborn and will get on board fairly soon after we have made the turn. I am not a permabear and would be just as happy to be long. |
