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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: AllansAlias who wrote (70108)	2/22/2001 1:14:24 AM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (3) of 436258

Allan I do not get insulted easily. I base my opinion on 2 things 1)Rydex ratios which are now quite bearish(which is bullish, and dictates bad sentiment). 2)The last Aiii survey was only 30% bulls. I follow the RYDEX numbers with JT pretty regularly, and at this point they are at a point that dictates a bounce. I am not disagreeing that in april-may we get next leg down, I just think we bounce here for a tradeable rally. We have had 2-3 capitulation ST bottoms that all displayed similear properties 1)Rydex more bearish 2)AIII bullish 1 month decline(though it didnt last) 3)Hit a known resistence, broke then rallied back on strong volume. If # 3 happens ill buy the scalp. Japan had big revershal tonight, will we? I dont know??? When I say capitulation I am not saying the end of the bear rally, I am saying bounce in a trading range leading to a bottom. I will say that BKX is the tell, If it doesnt recover big tomorrow then it could get BK ugly. I just watched 80' Hockey USA upset piece on HBO. Reminded me HOW bad sentiment really was in 1980 before the bull started in 82. It was such a memorable piece of my childhood, it almost brought me to tears.

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