ww,
Thanks for your input. You mention Net Present Value, but I'm hoping that you might put some flesh on these bones. In other words, I find your post to be a bit cryptic. Net Present Value of the the SP's or of the rights to the licenses or to the profit stream from the SPs or EBITDA or what in particular? If I were to look at the Net Present Value of the license holders, in view of the Forrester Research projection that the industry falls into the red by 2006 and does not return to profitabilily until 2013, then I'd say the NPV of VOD, BT, DT, FT, Orange and others if far less than the current offer prices in the stock market.
and don't forget the Going Concern Value of the business at the end of the loan.
I have not been privy to the information of the term of the bonds that DT, FT, BT, Orange and others have floated in order to pay for the UMTS licenses, so it is very hard to judge the Going Concern Value. Should the bonds run concurrently with the licenses, one can presume that at the end of the term, i.e. 2020, that technology will have moved on to 5G and that the 3G networks will be about on a par with present day AMPS systems. Which is to say, I believe that the 3G spectrum license is a wasting asset, one that will no doubt have to be renewed at a greater expense in another auction round in 2018, and which will no doubt keep the residual value of the current UMTS license at a minimun. Furthermore, I expect spectrum allocations in other parts of the RF spectrum to take away the specific bleeding edge lead that UMTS enjoys in the current scheme of things. JMVHO.
Best, Ray :) |
