Today's TSC interview with Paul Sagawa has sent me back to the archives in search of some of his less than stellar calls:
thestreet.com
When an analyst is right, as Sagawa’s been on telecom slowing, there are several factors that come into play: 1)Amnesia: when an analyst is right, the market forgets the analyst's earlier track record (at times far less stellar than the current brilliant call) and 2) Hubris: the analysts’s need to be right can blind-side them when a change in the original call is warranted. Sagawa made some horrible calls in the year or so leading up to Lucent’s demise. [LU's his baby. He's been pumping it for years.] Now, while his slow-down call has been proven right, he’s failing to factor in lowered expectations. If he doesn’t switch gears, he’ll be proven wrong on the upside and basically wipe out his brilliance on the downside. If I were he, I’d consider changing my cant. His current negativity makes the chances of being wrong on the upside far greater than being right.
Okay, a few of Sagawa’s comments he probably wishes he’d never made:
October 18, 1999, when LU was trading in the low 60s:
thestreet.com
Sagawa says some of his institutional clients are hedging their long positions by shorting shares, although not on his advice. Still, like most sell-side analysts, Sagawa thinks the company's underlying growth rates are good, and he rates the stock a buy. His firm has done no underwriting for Lucent.
February 3, 2000, when COMS was trading in the 50-55 range:
news.cnet.com
''The rest of 3Com has been undervalued,'' said Paul Sagawa, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein who rates 3Com an ''outperform.''
February 7, 2000, when CSCO was trading in the 65-70 range:
news.cnet.com
"They'll be very, very strong" in the telecommunications area, said Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Paul Sagawa, who rates Cisco an "outperform."
List of ratings by Sagawa: stockselector.com
March 2, 2000:
vnunet.com
Sales from Lucent's fibre-optic parts business rose by 83 per cent last year compared with the 1998, while the units the company is shedding saw growth of only eight per cent. But McGinn said that he expects the supplier's revenue to increase by about 17 per cent this year.
Paul Sagawa, an analyst at Sanford Bernstein & Co, said: "The businesses being spun off have been something of a drag on overall Lucent results. This makes the resulting Lucent an extremely vibrant growth engine."
October 27, 1999:
zdnet.co.uk
Lucent has topped Wall Street earnings expectations every quarter since it was spun off from AT&T in 1996. Revenues for the fourth quarter, ended 30 September, rose 23 percent from a year earlier, to $10.575bn. "This quarter should put to rest all of the nagging uncertainties," said Paul Sagawa, a telecommunications equipment analyst with Sanford Bernstein. "The company's balance sheet is strong, revenues are strong, earnings are strong, the momentum of future business is strong. It's (Lucent) been unfairly tarnished by some recent talk on the street. ". . .
In recent months, some analysts had expressed concern about Lucent's potential revenue growth, as well as inventory and uncollected bills. These issues weighed on Lucent's stock since hitting its all-time high of 79-11/16 in mid-July.
October 11, 2000, Motorola:
investorlinks.com
"I think the reality of their earnings should be sufficient [to reverse Motorola's share price decline]," says Sanford Bernstein analyst Paul Sagawa.
September 27, 2000, Motorola:
thestreet.com
Fortunately, the fundamental picture remains promising. "The clouds hanging over Lucent have little to do with demand for their products," according to Paul Sagawa, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. "They're the best broad play on all the important categories in Internet infrastructure."
August 10, 1999 [LU buys INS]
cnnfn.cnn.com; "It's a terrific deal," said Paul Sagawa, a telecom analyst at Sanford Bernstein, adding that revenues could climb as a result. "It adds legs to Lucent's top line growth." |
