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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED

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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (31748)2/22/2001 2:58:07 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (2) of 65232
 
Federal Reserve Weekly Leading Index (WLI) is trending up
Greenspan honed this index after the 1990-91 recession
back then, measurements he relied upon turned out to fail him
they were too slow in measuring the downturn/ upturn

the WLI was actually developed by Geoff Moore , GreenStudent's former economics professor at NewYorkUniv
the independent Economic Cycle Research Institute attests to its validity in tracking the economy

it is based upon:
- U.S. money supply
- stock & bond mutual fund inflows
- Journal of Commerce commodity price index
- mortgage applications (new and refi)
- weekly jobless claims

the WLI is now emitting recovery signals
some recent readings:
Jun 2000 = 125.3
Dec 2000 = 119.0
Jan 2001 = 122.0
Feb2, 2001 = 124.0
Feb9, 2001 = 122.8

so just cause for believing the economy IS recovering

check out a website with supporting info:
businesscycle.com
it is updated every Friday, so it claims
worth saving as a favorite by economy/ bond market watchers

/ Jim Willie Cooked Borscht
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