John,
I guess I didn't make my point, that I (we?) need to look 6 to 12 months down the road. You keep talking about right now, for a brand new processor.
The way I see the horse race is that Intel and AMD will be neck and neck in the high end throughout 2001. The interesting stuff will happen in period between Q4 2001 to Q2 2002. Intel will transition P4 to .13u slightly ahead of AMD transitioning K7 Athlon to .13u. There is a risk to both parties for this transition, probably higher for AMD, since Intel will be deploying the process in Q2/Q3 for P6 processors, so there should be more of the learning curve behind Intel. AMD is also introducing some riskier technologies in their .13u.
I think the probability is higher that AMD will have delays than Intel. At about the same time (1H 2002) AMD will be introducing a new core, which always has its risks (plus risks of delays of infrastructure). But the benefit of the new core will be potentially higher performance, and 64bit support, which may be a wild card.
The bottom line is that Intel roadmap looks smoother, with fewer risks than AMD's, but AMD has a potential to leapfrog Intel, and leave Intel at the end of 2002 without a competitive product in any market segment. (ok, there is Xscale)
Joe |
