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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host
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To: geode00 who wrote (12221)2/22/2001 6:06:26 PM
From: Math Junkie  Read Replies (1) of 42834
 
"Wow, that's worse than I thought."

I was surprised that the results for an aggressive investor were not that much worse than the total market, especially when you consider that I specifically avoided including the effects of the January 2000 move to raise cash. In other words, I was specifically evaluating Brinker's worst period.

"Annualize that Richard because Bob would."

Maybe he would - I don't know. But I don't believe that an aggressive investor can afford to think like that, because having paper losses in that range is not that unusual for an aggressive investor. That's why it's important for investors to know their risk tolerance, and to stay in the shallow end of the pool if they are afraid of deep water.

"If Bob is such a useful advisor, why didn't he play that CTR between the high 60's and today (25%)? I suspect it is because he has no idea."

I've made it pretty clear by now that I think his strengths lie elsewhere than in predicting CTRs.

"You may not mind the copyright infringement problems but I do."

Although the Fair Use doctrine permits limited quoting, I think you are right to avoid quoting from the current issue, out of respect for the wishes of other paying subscribers.

"Therefore, read this month's MT and try and find the October-November-December CTR. You can find the one in the summer, the one in January but the middle one is magically missing. Amazing isn't it?"

The discussion in MT is an accurate summary of what ACTUALLY HAPPENED in the market. It would be strange indeed if he claimed there was a CTR when there wasn't. The only thing missing, as far as I can see, is tracking of results from the October recommendation. But the information which is included appears to be accurate.

"What in the world is that bs about things being slightly worse than anticipated?"

That bs is apparently a product of your imagination. I don't see that word "slightly" anywhere in what I quoted or in what he wrote.

"The CTR didn't materialize and he DIDN't admit that he had made that huge mistake. It was a 3-month long mistake but where did it go?"

The error was that QQQ went lower than he forecast. He admitted that it went lower than he anticipated. Sounds close enough to me. I guess you want to see him in sackcloth-and-ashes. If so, I predict that you will be disappointed.
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