you are right. i was very wrong. although i was not referring to tech inventories, but to total US inventories.
Until i read the wsj article, i had no idea tech inventories had piled up 52%!
now i must revise my opinion. i think we are in a recession that will be relatively mild but will last all of this year, and that we will slowly, sluggishly begin to recover during 2002 and 2003 - a long shallow u-shape.
i think this will tire a lot of stock investors, and around summer there will be lots of bargains. the secret ingredient now is CASH. own only for cash, and have a lot of cash to be able to buy those bargains in august. OR, if you own great stocks like nt, glw, sunw, intc FOR CASH, and don't need the money now - go on a stock vacation for 2-3 years. don't read any financial publications, skip cnn and cnbc, and take a look again in 2003. |
