I'll take a stab if you don't mind Heinz, would like to hear your comments too:
tcb-indicators.org
The positive contributors to the leading index in January, from largest to smallest, were money supply, average weekly manufacturing hours, building permits, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, interest rate spread, stock prices, and manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods.
well, we know why money supply contributed to LEI being higher than expected and I suspect building permits go up in Jan relative to December because everyone is on vacation for half of December. Stock prices are an irrational component -g-
The negative contributors to the index, from largest to smallest, were vendor performance, index of consumer expectations, and manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods and materials
Nothing indicating recovery here, bwdik? Much of it should reflect January's corporate debt bonanza, yet capex was still down.
Also:
However, the January reading was boosted by a technical adjustment, which put the leading and lagging indices in sync with the coincident index, Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein said.
Without that, January leading indicators would have risen by 0.4 percent, which however could still be regarded as a ``big change,'' Goldstein said in a telephone interview.
It's funny that the media spin is that the bulls fear the stronger LEI because it may tie Greenspan's hands...so they are wanting the slowdown to continue just to get a rate cut, knowing it will mean even worse earnings and fundamentals? How irrational can they get? A mantra of rate cuts, hope, voltaire's angels, and oversold stochastics seems to be all they can chase after these days. I am noticing more and more talk of valuations lately, which should scare the bulls more than their pretty charts turned ugly.
I guess next months LEI will be telling |
